Under Trump's command, the global cross-border e-commerce market is once again experiencing turbulence.

On October 10th, Trump announced via his social media platform "Truth Social" that a 100% tariff would be imposed on all goods imported from China, effective November 1st. This new tariff rate will be levied on top of existing tariffs, causing the average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods to soar from the current ~57% to over 150%.

For cross-border e-commerce businesses reliant on China-U.S. markets, this policy is undoubtedly a heavy blow. This comes shortly after the U.S., starting August 29th, canceled the de minimis exemption for cross-border parcels valued under $800, which had already led to a 25%-30% surge in costs for Chinese sellers.

Policy Shock: From Small-Parcel Tax Exemption to 100% Tariffs

Trump wrote on "Truth Social": "Don't worry about China, everything will be fine!"

But when asked if the plan to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1st was still valid, Trump affirmatively responded: "Yes, currently in effect, we'll have to see what happens next."

This policy is a countermeasure against China's implementation of export controls on rare earth elements and a series of other measures. Trump claims this move is a response to China's "extremely tough" stance on trade issues.

The re-ignition of trade war fires between the world's two largest economies is putting immense pressure on cross-border e-commerce operators.

Previously, the U.S. revocation of the $800 de minimis exemption for cross-border parcels from August 29th had already plunged the industry into "winter mode."

The complete closure of this long-standing tax exemption means low-priced goods entering the U.S. will face a 25%-30% surge in tariff costs.

Real Impact: The Economic Truth Behind the Tariffs

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) monthly tracker report released in September reveals the actual fiscal impact of the Trump tariff policies.

The report shows that the actual customs tariff revenue collected by the U.S. from January-July 2025 was far lower than levels reported in the media.

In January 2025, consumer goods imports were $89 billion, with actual collections of $3.2 billion, resulting in an effective tariff rate of only 3.6%.

During the same period, imports from China were $43 billion, with actual collections of $4.5 billion, resulting in an effective tariff rate of 10.5%, significantly lower than the nominal rate. This is largely due to substantial dilution caused by exemptions, exclusions, and deferrals.

More notably, tariffs' contribution to total federal revenue has been minimal. In FY2025, tariff revenue was $122 billion, accounting for only 6.5% of the CBO's projected $1.9 trillion deficit.

PIIE's report further reveals a harsher economic reality behind this: the high tariffs have not fulfilled their fiscal promise of "rebuilding America," but have instead morphed into a hidden tax ultimately paid by U.S. businesses and consumers.

Industry Upheaval: The Battle for Survival in Cross-Border E-commerce

Adjustments in U.S. tariff policy have shifted the cross-border e-commerce industry from initial panic and watchfulness into a phase of profound survival challenge, facing triple pressures of drastic cost structure changes, market landscape restructuring, and shifts in consumer behavior.

The following chart illustrates the impact of tariff changes across four dimensions: Supply Chain & Inventory, Industry Fragmentation & Adjustment, Changes in Consumer Behavior, and Shift in Practitioner Mindset.

Breakout Strategies: Survival through Diversification and Digitization

Faced with severe volatility in the U.S. market, cross-border e-commerce companies are building defensive systems in multiple directions.

Sellers intending to continue focusing deeply on the U.S. market need comprehensive consideration across various aspects.

• Multi-Market, Multi-Platform Strategy: A core measure to diversify risk. Extend business to mature channels like Amazon, Walmart, eBay, or emerging platforms like TikTok Shop and TEMU. Expand market geography to balance reliance on any single market.

• Systematic Multi-Platform Integration: As business expands across multiple markets and platforms, there's a need for professional overseas warehouse WMS (Warehouse Management Systems) to uniformly process orders from different e-commerce platforms, coordinate inventory allocation across multiple overseas warehouses, and integrate business data with financial systems.

• Re-evaluating Supply Chain Costs: Without compromising service quality and efficiency, opt for safer, more cost-effective logistics channels for first-mile, storage, and last-mile delivery. For high-value-per-order items, large-item sellers need to re-evaluate other qualified large-item delivery channels with professional credentials to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

Sellers on SHEIN and Temu are re-mapping their business blueprints. From the U.S. East and West Coasts to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere, a global supply chain restructuring has begun.

The transmission of tariffs to CPI and PCE lags on average by 3-6 months, meaning consumers have not yet fully felt the pressure of future tax increases.

Looking for new growth opportunities amidst the changes, the cross-border e-commerce industry is racing against time to review businesses and developments, implementing a market diversification strategy to cope with the complex and changing international trade environment.